Edge boardMODEL vs MARKET-IMPLIED · SORTED BY |Δ|
| Event | Model P | Mkt-impl | Edge Δ ▼ | Conf | Trend·7 | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil v Norway — Brazil to advance · World Cup | 71.0% | 62.0% | +9.0 | 0.86 | BUY YES | |
| Paraguay v France — Paraguay to advance · World Cup | 24.0% | 33.0% | -9.0 | 0.81 | BUY NO | |
| Canada v Morocco — Canada to advance · World Cup | 48.0% | 41.0% | +7.0 | 0.74 | BUY YES | |
| Verstappen — next race win · Formula 1 | 48.0% | 55.0% | -7.0 | 0.68 | BUY NO | |
| Spain/Austria v Croatia/Portugal · World Cup | 55.0% | 49.0% | +6.0 | 0.71 | BUY YES | |
| Belgium/Senegal v USA/Bosnia · World Cup | 52.0% | 58.0% | -6.0 | 0.69 | BUY NO | |
| Sinner to reach the final · Wimbledon | 61.0% | 55.0% | +6.0 | 0.72 | BUY YES | |
| Dodgers to win the division · MLB | 72.0% | 66.0% | +6.0 | 0.75 | BUY YES | |
| Australia/Egypt v Argentina/Cape Verde · World Cup | 19.0% | 14.0% | +5.0 | 0.58 | BUY YES | |
| Djokovic — quarter-final exit · Wimbledon | 44.0% | 49.0% | -5.0 | 0.66 | BUY NO | |
| Norris to win the drivers' title · Formula 1 | 41.0% | 36.0% | +5.0 | 0.70 | BUY YES | |
| Mexico/Ecuador v England/Congo DR · World Cup | 44.0% | 40.0% | +4.0 | 0.63 | LEAN YES | |
| Alcaraz to win the title · Wimbledon | 38.0% | 34.0% | +4.0 | 0.77 | LEAN YES | |
| Yankees — miss the wildcard · MLB | 45.0% | 49.0% | -4.0 | 0.61 | LEAN NO | |
| Switzerland/Algeria v TBD · World Cup | 50.0% | 52.0% | -2.0 | 0.55 | LEAN NO |
Edge Δ = model − market-implied (pp). Positive = model likes YES; the wider the gap at high confidence, the stronger the setup.
Paper-trading bankrollALL BOOKS · KELLY 0.25×
Bankroll
$11,847
ROI
+18.47%
Max drawdown
-6.2%
Hit rate
58%
Kelly fraction
0.25×
CLV
+2.1%
Operator mode — dollar figures visible.
Recent betsLAST 8 · SETTLED + OPEN
WC · BRA ML +9.0Δ
$412
WON +$374
WC · PAR UND −9.0Δ
$388
WON +$352
F1 · NORRIS WDC +5.0Δ
$296
OPEN
WIM · ALCARAZ +4.0Δ
$274
OPEN
MLB · LAD NO −4.0Δ
$263
WON +$214
WIM · SINNER FIN +6.0Δ
$318
OPEN
WC · ESP ML +6.0Δ
$296
LOST −$296
F1 · VER NRW −7.0Δ
$252
WON +$198
CalibrationRELIABILITY · n=528
0.187
Brier · vs market-implied baseline 0.214
Dots on the dashed line mean the model's confidence matches reality. Lower Brier is sharper — the model beats the crowd baseline across 528 settled events.
Why the top setup is attractiveTHE DISAGREEMENT IS THE SIGNAL
Brazil v Norway — Brazil to advance — the model reads 71.0% against a market-implied 62.0%, a +9.0pp discrepancy at 0.86 confidence (strong edge). Because the model is better calibrated than the crowd, the gap is signal, not noise — and it is Kelly-sized rather than bet flat.
Edge Δ
+9.0pp
Confidence
0.86
Brier edge
−0.027
Kelly size
0.25×
Edge reportLEVERAGE
Draft edge report
Top edges, book summary, calibration, and the why-it's-attractive rationale — assembled into a sendable note in the selected house style.
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Sports media playbookCOMMENTARY · NO GAME STREAM
14:20
Round-of-16 preview — Brazil v Norway tactical read
Commentary behind the model's 71% vs market 62% on Brazil to advance. Talk-format, not a broadcast.Talk-format commentary, source-linked — synopsis only. No live game broadcast embedded.
08:55
Where the market is mispricing advance markets
Independent take that corroborates the +9.0pp edge; commentary only, no game footage.Talk-format commentary, source-linked — synopsis only. No live game broadcast embedded.
12:02
Calibration walkthrough — why Brier 0.187 beats the crowd
How the reliability edge translates into Kelly-sized conviction across 528 settled events.Talk-format commentary, source-linked — synopsis only. No live game broadcast embedded.
Analysis wireCOMMENTARY · NON-BROADCAST
Model desk13:20ZEdge
Brazil advance repriced: model 71% vs market 62% holds after team news
WhyNo injury shock; the +9.0pp edge is stable — the disagreement is the signal, not noise.
Line watch12:05ZLine move
Paraguay-to-advance drifts 2pp toward the model over the session
WhyMarket inching toward the model's 24% — CLV building on the BUY NO.
Match preview10:40ZCommentary
Round-of-16 form guide: possession sides overperforming xG
WhyStyle read supports the calibration edge in tight matchups this round.
Settlement09:15ZResult
Overnight settle: MLB division BUY resolved WON (+$214)
WhyAdds to a +18.5% ROI book; hit rate holds at 58% across 528 settled events.