NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
Semiconductors
198.24
+2.14%
Snapshot
Accumulation
Mkt cap
$4.8T
P/E NTM
38.2x
EV/EBITDA
31.4x
Rev growth
+34.1%
Beta
1.7
Short int
1.1%
Timeframe
Type
◆ SIMULATED PATH · deterministic per ticker
Candles · 3M
Guidance
BREAKING · WHY IT'S MOVING
Hyperscaler FY26 capex commentary points higher again — datacenter read-through
Why it matters
Big cloud companies signalled they will spend even more on AI computers next year. That is good for NVIDIA, which makes most of those chips.
Why it matters
Three of the largest hyperscalers nudged FY26 capex commentary higher, reinforcing the datacenter backlog. Positive read-through to NVDA units; the swing factor is Rubin ramp yield and gross-margin trajectory, not demand.
Why it matters
Hyperscaler FY26 capex bias higher supports the backlog thesis; NVDA demand is not the debate — supply (CoWoS) and Rubin ramp yield are. Watch gross-margin path into FY27 and any internal-silicon substitution signalling from the top-4 customers (~46% of DC revenue).
DC backlog ↑
CoWoS supply •
Custom-silicon ↓
Catalyst rankingREASON-FOR-MOVE · RANKED
1
Rubin launch / ramp · FY27 · ASP + gross-margin swing factor; hinges on ramp yield.
high
2
Hyperscaler capex guides · Ongoing · Read-through to datacenter backlog; another beat implied.
high
3
BIS / China policy · Ongoing · Downside tail; caps China TAM.
med
4
CoWoS capacity adds · 2026 · Supply unlock; eases the packaging bottleneck.
med
Deep diveANALYST READ · KEY RISKS
Analyst readDatacenter backlog still exceeds supply through mid-2027; hyperscaler capex guides imply another beat. Rubin ramp is the margin swing factor into FY27.
01Supply concentrationFew qualified suppliers for advanced packaging (TSMC CoWoS); an extended disruption impairs the entire datacenter roadmap.
02Customer concentrationTop-4 hyperscalers are ~46% of datacenter revenue, and all four run internal-silicon substitution programs.
03Export controlsChina revenue is structurally capped; further BIS tightening is an unhedgeable policy risk.
Newswire Event-driven · snapshot
Options tape14:52ZM&A ChatterHYDR
HYDR +4.96% on unconfirmed sponsor interest
Why3.8× normal call volume in Aug 30-strikes; tape leads the headline.
Company IR13:07ZGuidance CutITX
ITX cuts FY26 EBITDA guidance 6% on destocking
WhyRead-across to industrials with process-market exposure; watch order rates.
SEC EDGAR11:31Z13D FiledMTRX
Activist discloses 6.2% stake in MTRX
WhyLetter urges separation of aftermarket services — a re-rating catalyst.
ISM08:15ZMacro—
June ISM Manufacturing 51.4 — third above 50
WhyNew orders strongest since 2024; supports the cyclical read.
Fed wire07:40ZRates—
Two Fed speakers lean dovish on the September path
Why2Y drifting lower into the print — supports duration-sensitive growth names.
Supply chain06:05ZSemisNVDA
Taiwan monthly export orders beat; advanced-node utilization full
WhyConsistent with the CoWoS-constrained, demand-unconstrained datacenter read.
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Global marketsSnapshot · SIM
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EUR/USD1.1420+0.06%
WatchlistSnapshot
TickerLastChgVolumeMkt cap
NVDA
198.24
+2.14%
189.2M
$4.8T
AAPL
241.06
+0.48%
48.1M
$3.6T
MSFT
512.90
−0.22%
21.4M
$3.8T
GOOGL
191.40
+0.63%
27.9M
$2.3T
AMZN
224.10
+0.90%
36.4M
$2.4T
META
612.30
+1.05%
12.8M
$1.5T
TSLA
352.80
−1.40%
88.6M
$1.1T
JPM
268.40
−0.30%
8.9M
$764B
CAT
402.10
+0.75%
2.6M
$194B
Media playbookLINK-BASED · NO STREAM EMBEDDED
06:30
Datacenter capex read-through after hyperscaler prints
Context for the NVDA backlog thesis and the Rubin ramp as the margin swing factor.Source-linked preview — synopsis only. No broadcast embedded.
11:15
Advanced-packaging (CoWoS) supply deep-dive
The supply-side gate on the datacenter roadmap — the key risk to the read.Source-linked preview — synopsis only. No broadcast embedded.
22:48
Custom-silicon vs merchant GPUs — the substitution debate
Bear-case framing on hyperscaler internal-silicon programs (~46% of DC revenue).Source-linked preview — synopsis only. No broadcast embedded.